The UK’s social care landscape stands at a crossroads. With an ageing population, rising complexity of needs and growing public awareness of care inequalities, the next 5-10 years will be pivotal. Will we see a system transformed by innovation and compassion or one still struggling under the weight of underfunding and fragmentation?
Let’s explore what social care might look like in 2035, drawing on current projections, sector insights and hopeful possibilities.
Demographics and Demand: The Pressure Builds
By 2035, the UK will have significantly more people aged 65 and over, many living with multiple long-term conditions. The Health Foundation projects that adult social care demand will rise sharply, with costs increasing by up to 70% by 2035 if care quality is improved.
Similarly, the Fabian Society has estimated that in England alone, the spending on support for older people would have to rise from around £25 billion now to around £40 billion by 2035 to keep pace with population change.
This increase in demand means:
- More people needing support at home, in residential settings and through informal care.
- Greater demand for dementia care, mental health support and culturally competent services.
- A growing need to support working-age adults with disabilities, not just older people.
Without reform, the system risks becoming overwhelmed.
Reform, integration and shifting models of care
In response to rising demand and longstanding pressures, there is a push towards reform. The UK government’s white paper ‘People at the Heart of Care’ sets out a 10-year vision for adult social care in England: one where people have choice and control, outstanding quality tailored to their needs and fairness of access.
What might this look like in practice by 2035?
- More integration between health and social care: services will increasingly aim to join up care for physical health, mental wellbeing and social support — reducing fragmentation.
- A shift from institutional, residential models to more community-based care, supported by technology, enabling people to stay at home longer or in less intensive settings.
- Greater emphasis on prevention: helping people maintain wellbeing and independence rather than waiting until crisis.
- A stronger focus on choice, control and personalisation: people using care will have more say over how, when and where support is delivered.
Funding: From Crisis to Sustainability?
Of course, aspirations must contend with real-world constraints and funding remains the biggest barrier to transformation. The current model which is largely reliant on local authority budgets and means-tested contributions is widely seen as unsustainable.
By 2035, we could see:
- A national care service or more integrated funding with the NHS.
- Universal entitlement to basic care, reducing postcode lotteries.
- Social insurance models or progressive taxation to share costs more fairly.
The Health Foundation warns that even maintaining current levels of care will require significant increases in government spending but there have been warnings that elements of reform may not be implemented until 2036 or beyond.
Photo by Den Lyons on Unsplash
The workforce and the role of technology
One of the biggest challenges for the future will be the workforce. The social care workforce already exceeds 1.6 million in England, larger than many major industries. Recruiting, training and retaining a large enough pool of care workers and making sure they are valued and supported is vital.
At the same time, technology and data are increasingly part of the story. The government’s data roadmap Care Data Matters: A Roadmap for Better Adult Social Care Data sets out intentions to improve the quality, availability and use of social care data so that care can be more efficient and personalised.
By 2035 we might expect:
- More apps, sensors, remote monitoring and digital platforms enabling independence at home.
- Smarter use of data to identify risk early, personalise support plans and coordinate between services.
- Hybrid models of care where human-led and technology-enabled services complement each other.
- New roles and freelancers entering the ecosystem: for example, digital-wellbeing coaches, remote companionship services, creative-therapies delivered online to people in their homes.
Equity and Inclusion
By 2035, the UK social care system must be more than functional – it must be fair. Equity and inclusion are not optional extras; they are foundational to a system that truly serves everyone. Yet today, access to care is shaped by postcode, income, ethnicity, disability and even digital literacy. If left unaddressed, these disparities will deepen as demand grows. Social care must serve everyone regardless of income, ethnicity, disability, or geography.
By 2035, we hope to see:
- Culturally competent care, shaped by diverse voices.
- Better support for unpaid carers, especially women and marginalised groups.
- Stronger rights and advocacy, ensuring people can challenge poor care and shape policy.
The push for co-production and lived experience leadership is growing. Embedding these values could transform not just services, but the culture of care itself.
Sustainability and Climate-Aware Care
By 2035, climate change will no longer be a distant policy issue. It will be a lived reality shaping how we care, where we live and who is most at risk. The social care sector, often overlooked in climate conversations, has a vital role to play in building resilience, reducing emissions and nurturing wellbeing in a changing world.
A climate-aware care system is not just about carbon but is also about justice, preparedness and the right to thrive in every season.
In an ideal world, by 2035, social care could:
- Use green buildings and transport, reducing emissions.
- Support climate resilience e.g. helping vulnerable people during heatwaves or floods.
- Embed nature-based wellbeing, from garden therapy to eco-friendly routines.
These ideals would align with broader public health goals and reflect the sector’s growing environmental awareness.
Policy and System Reform
If UK social care is to thrive by 2035, it must be underpinned by bold, coherent policy and system reform. Piecemeal fixes and short-term funding injections have left the sector fragmented, reactive, and often invisible in national discourse. What’s needed now is a reimagining of care as a public good, one that is essential, dignified and deeply relational.
To reach this vision, bold policy shifts like these are needed:
- Long-term strategy, not short-term fixes.
- Joined-up governance, linking health, housing and social care.
- Public engagement, ensuring reforms reflect real needs and values.
This government and the next will face mounting pressure to act from sector leaders, charities and grassroots voices.
Final Thoughts: A Sector Worth Believing In
By 2035, the UK’s social care system could look vastly different from today. It could be more connected, more digitally-enabled, and more centred on independence and tailored support. But it will still face the major pressures of budgetary constraints, workforce shortages and regional variation.
At Vivacity Healthcare, our hope is that the social care sector is a source of pride, a system that values care as deeply as cure. But this future depends on choices made today by policymakers, funders, and communities and by those working within the care sector.
We believe the path forward is both challenging but full of possibility and that through creativity, collaboration and compassion, we can shape a care system that truly reflects our shared humanity.
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At Vivacity Healthcare, our mission is simple but powerful: to provide care where dignity is at the heart of every interaction. We believe that when people feel respected, valued and empowered, true healing and wellbeing can flourish.
Dignity is not just part of our promise. It is our promise. And it will remain the centre of everything we do today and always.
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